Overall business may challenge last year's President's Day Weekend.
Here is the predicted Top 10 for the 4-day weekend:
#1: Deadpool ($73 million)
#2: Zoolander 2 ($28 million)
#3: Kung Fu Panda 3 ($24 million, +14%)
#4: How to Be Single ($22 million)
#5: Hail, Caesar! ($9 million, -20%)
#6: The Revenant ($7.5 million, +9%)
#7: Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($7 million, unchanged)
#8: The Choice ($6 million, unchanged)
#9: The Finest Hours ($4.5 million, -7%)
#10: Pride and Prejudice and Zombies ($4 million, -25%)
Deadpool has had strong tracking and buzz for the last several months. Ryan Reynolds' hotly-anticipated solo turn as the foul-mouthed anti-hero will bring in diehard comic book fans this weekend. Great reviews (81% on Rotten Tomatoes) will only further help. There is a chance the R rating will prevent it from breaking out (other superhero movies reached broader audiences with PG-13 ratings), and fan inflation could take effect as well. Fox is being more cautious with a $60-65 million four-day projection, but I think it will do a little better than that based on anticipation levels. A number like this would rank second to Fifty Shades of Grey for February openers.
Zoolander 2 has also had strong buzz over the last several weeks, as Ben Stiller, Owen Wilson and company return from the original which earned $45 million back in 2001. Since then, that fashionista movie has earned a major cult following. Based on overall tracking, Zoolander 2 looks set to open in line with Anchorman 2 among recent comedy sequels.
How to Be Single will be the major female option of the weekend, and its benefiting from little competition for the demographic. Valentine's Day will help it boost further also. Strong marketing helps, and buzz is decent. Don't be surprised if this passes $20 million for the extended frame, before falling off quickly in the coming weeks.
Kung Fu Panda 3 will be the major choice for families, and with kids out of school Monday, it will have a strong hold on Sunday and perhaps an uptick on Monday. Extended weekends usually cause most family movies to hold even or jump up slightly from their previous weekends, and I'd expect a similar fate here.
Almost all other films should remain unchanged or increase slightly from last weekend over the 4-day frame. The only exceptions being last weekend's Hail, Caesar! and Pride and Prejudice and Zombies, which will not benefit from weak CinemaScores.
