Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: The Revenant ($21 million, -29%)
#2: Ride Along 2 ($18.5 million, -46%)
#3: Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($16 million, -36%)
#4: The 5th Wave ($15 million)
#5: The Boy ($11 million)
#6: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi ($10 million, -38%)
#7: Dirty Grandpa ($9 million)
#8: Daddy's Home ($5.5 million, -41%)
#9: The Big Short ($4 million, -23%)
#10: Norm of the North ($3.8 million, -43%)
None of this weekend's offerings are showing to have much potential. Out of all three, The 5th Wave is showing the most potential, however. Sadly, though, it has shown minimal interest among its teenage audience, at least in comparison to The Hunger Games and Divergent. Having its trailer shown in front of Star Wars will help a little bit, but, I think a debut closer to The Giver and The Host should be more of an expectation here (if not slightly higher).
The Boy will be the next horror offering of the year, but overall tracking and buzz has been behind The Forest through the same point. I may be a little generous with expectations, as overall marketing has been fairly strong thus far. But, I wouldn't be surprised if this ended up in single-digits millions for the weekend.
Zac Efron and Robert de Niro may sound like an interesting pairing, but it won't help Dirty Grandpa. De Niro is coming off a hit with The Intern, while Efron had an embarrassment with We Are Your Friends. The R-rated comedy may pull in some young adults, but overall buzz and excitement hasn't been much. Lionsgate is getting off to a bumpy start this year.
As for holdovers, The Revenant might be able to take the top spot this weekend, barring an unexpected breakout from one of the new releases. Its benefiting from strong Oscar buzz. Ride Along 2, on the other hand, will probably drop close to 50% like its predecessor, especially with negative reviews. 13 Hours should fare a lot better, thanks to strong word-of-mouth ("A" CinemaScore). Norm of the North will have one more week before Kung Fu Panda 3 storms into town, but the negative word-of-mouth won't help it.
The Big Short, also benefiting from Oscar buzz, will also hold strong. Daddy's Home will remain in the mix also thanks to no PG-13 comedy competition. Finally, Star Wars: The Force Awakens will have a stronger hold this weekend than the last two frames, despite The 5th Wave likely to take away some teenagers.
