Thursday, January 14, 2016

Martin Luther King, Jr. Weekend Box Office Predictions.

Here is the predicted Top 10:

#1: Ride Along 2 ($38 million 3-day, $46 million 4-day)
#2: The Revenant ($27 million 3-day [-32%], $37 million 4-day)
#3: Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($25 million 3-day [-41%], $36.5 million 4-day)
#4: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi ($21 million 3-day, $26 million 4-day)
#5: Norm of the North ($9 million 3-day, $12 million 4-day)
#6: Daddy's Home ($7.5 million [-50%] 3-day, $10 million 4-day)
#7: The Forest ($5.5 million [-57%] 3-day, $8 million 4-day)
#8: The Big Short ($5 million [-19%] 3-day, $7.5 million 4-day)
#9: Sisters ($4.5 million [-38%] 3-day, $6 million 4-day)
#10: The Hateful Eight ($4 million [-38%] 3-day, $5.5 million 4-day)

Ride Along 2 is arriving two years after the wildly successful first movie, which set a January record with a $48 million 4-day launch. As for the sequel, buzz and marketing have been strong, and Kevin Hart proves to be a solidly-bankable star early on in his movie career (Get Hard, his last film, was a respectable hit, earning nearly $100 million). At this point, it could beat its predecessor, but other comedies in the marketplace may make it fall just short.

Michael Bay also enters the fray with his military film, 13 Hours. Also benefiting from a strong marketing effort, the wartime flick is hoping to appeal to the same audience as American Sniper, though that was an Oscar contender. Reviews are sure to not be that great. However, numbers more in line with Act of Valor ($25 million) might be more reachable here.

In a year full of animal-starring animated films, Norm of the North lands on the low end. Despite some strong marketing, the Lionsgate-released pic just hasn't generated much excitement. However, animated films have broken out over Martin Luther King Jr. Weekend, such as The Nut Job, another movie that didn't really generate hardly any excitement. That one opened to $26 million over the four-day stretch. Could the same happen to Norm of the North? Absolutely. But, it doesn't even have really any relevant starpower attached to it. I just don't see it doing nearly as well.

The Revenant will be benefiting from Golden Globe wins on Sunday as well as possible major Oscar love. Look for a strong second weekend out of this one. Star Wars: The Force Awakens will likely lose the top spot after four weekends, but should remain in the mix with strong numbers in its fifth weekend. Below that mark are Christmas leftovers. Oscar contenders (The Big Short) should have the strongest hold, while direct competition (Daddy's Home) will likely have harder drops. The Forest will be under the second weekend horror curse, while The Hateful Eight and Sisters will likely fall into the middle in terms of percentage drops.