Here is how I think 2016 will end up:
#1: Captain America: Civil War
Domestic Prediction: $475 million, Worldwide Prediction: $1.35 billion
Civil War isn't so much a Captain America movie as it is an Avengers 2.5. The movie is supposed to have the first-ever appearances of Black Panther and Spider-Man in the MCU. But while expecting such a huge jump from The Winter Soldier ($730 million worldwide) would be insane, we need to keep in mind the presence of Robert Downey, Jr.'s Iron Man, as those movies were $1+ billion grossers. This movie shattered the YouTube trailer record (64 million in 24 hours), and considering the MCU has been so reliable the last few years, this should easily be a $1 billion grosser. I think, ultimately, it will come close to Age of Ultron's $1.4 billion final gross worldwide.
#2: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Domestic Prediction: $450 million, Worldwide Prediction: $1.25 billion
With Star Wars: The Force Awakens surpassing just about every conceivable record, one might would imagine Rogue One living up to that. However, hold your horses. It may be Star Wars, but its a prequel and not focused on the current story. Prequels have a mixed track record in theaters, and it would overall be outrageous to expect this to come close to Force Awakens. Still though, at this point, unless the trailer and movie isn't that good, it will most likely pass $1 billion.
#3: Finding Dory
Predicted Domestic Gross: $425 million, Predicted Worldwide Gross: $1.1 million
Finding Nemo earned an adjusted $500 million domestically ($340 million in that year's currency) in 2003. It was the biggest animated film of all-time up to that point and ended up with nearly $900 million worldwide. And it remains one of Pixar's most universally-loved films. I could see this getting a 3D boost and earning over $1 billion thanks to the nostalgia factor, Pixar's strong track record domestically and overseas.
#4: Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Domestic Gross: $400 million, Predicted Worldwide Gross: $1.1 billion
Based on this team-up alone, this should get above $1 billion (like the two Dark Knight films did). Maybe I'm being a little conservative, as the March 25 date is a little odd for this type of film (I might would have aimed for 4th of July). But, Batman v. Superman, despite the odd date and the mixed word-of-mouth that came from the recent trailer, is still set to have a strong run in theaters.
#5: Ice Age: Collision Course
Predicted Domestic Gross: $150 million, Predicted Worldwide Gross: $875 million
The Ice Age movies have been incredibly strong performers overseas (Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Continental Drift each earned around $700 million overseas), while the domestic gross continues to taper gently downhill. Added competition for animated films this summer won't help matters either in the domestic department. But worldwide, it should be a blockbuster.
#6: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Predicted Domestic Gross: $260 million, Predicted Worldwide Gross: $800 million
The Harry Potter movies were huge success stories, culminating with The Deathly Hallows - Part II earning $1.3 billion worldwide. Being a prequel, it would be insane to expect for Fantastic Beasts to do the same. Instead, the awareness of it being a J.K. Rowling project should allow for it to regardless, still earn huge numbers.
#7: X-Men: Apocalypse
Predicted Domestic Gross: $225 million, Predicted Worldwide Gross: $750 million
X-Men: Days of Future Past was the highest-grossing installment of the franchise yet, earning over $730 million worldwide. As for Apocalypse, it plays as a crucial climactic piece in the current trilogy (almost all directed by Bryan Singer). Apocalypse opens on the prime Memorial Day weekend, and could very well either match or slightly surpass its predecessor.
#8: Independence Day: Resurgence
Predicted Domestic Gross: $225 million, Predicted Worldwide Gross: $700 million
Independence Day earned $900 million worldwide back in 1993 ($580 million adjusted domestically). That's a huge bar to live up to. But considering apocalyptic films have become insanely more common (and the summer season much more competitive), it will be very hard for Resurgence to reach the heights of its predecessor. It should still succeed, albeit on a smaller level.
#9: Alice Through The Looking Glass
Predicted Domestic Gross: $210 million, Predicted Worldwide Gross: $675 million
Alice in Wonderland earned over $1 billion in 2010, but it received a mixed reception from audiences and was directed by Tim Burton. Burton steps down to be a producer this time around, and the trailer invoked more mixed responses. Competing against X-Men: Apocalypse won't be easy this time either. But, being a Disney live-action fairy tale and being a strong choice for family audiences should get this in between Maleficent and Cinderella.
#10: The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Domestic Gross: $200 million, Predicted Worldwide Gross: $625 million
Randomly selected for the #10 spot, Illumination Entertainment has had a crazy track record overseas so far for its Despicable Me franchise, and is sure to promote this pets flick like crazy (they already have). Based on how animated films usually do strong business in the summer, this film could definitely be a major surprise.
Other Films That Could End Up on the Top 10 List:
Deadpool
Zootopia
The Divergent Series: Allegiant
The Jungle Book
The Huntsman Winter's War
The Nice Guys
Neighbors 2
The Angry Birds Movie
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
The BFG
The Legend of Tarzan
Ghostbusters
Star Trek Beyond
Bourne 5
Suicide Squad
Pete's Dragon
Doctor Strange
The Great Wall
Moana
Assassin's Creed
Jumanji
