The only new movie releasing this weekend is certainly one with big potential. Animated fourquel Ice Age: Continental Drift is releasing three years after what was the biggest animated movie of all-time overseas, Dawn of the Dinosaurs. Overseas grosses are already strong for this new installment, with over $200 million so far in just two weeks. In terms of domestic grosses, Ice Age is the rare franchise to have its' movies' build up on each other, with Dinosaurs being the biggest-grossing one, closing at just shy of $200 million. Its' a little difficult to predict how this one will do, because, to be honest, anticipation hasn't been very relevant. The only other animated movie franchise to get a fourth film is Shrek, and the fourth and final installment of that series wound up with two-thirds of Shrek The Third's final gross. With Brave and Madagascar 3 still in the Top 10 this weekend, they will steal about $15 million away from the films' opening. And The Dark Knight Rises may also be a threat to it next weekend. Critical reception has been mixed-to-positive, and one thing that might work in its' favor is that there won't be any more movies aimed at families until The Odd Life of Timothy Green debuts in mid-August, which could help it see strong legs throughout the rest of the summer. Opening in over 3,800 theaters, look for Ice Age 4 to set sail to about $48 million and first place this weekend. Then expect it to hold well for the remainder of the summer, but fall short of its' predecessors, with around $170 million by the time it leaves theaters.After its' strong debut last weekend, The Amazing Spider-Man will have its' work cut out for it between now and when The Dark Knight Rises destroys it next weekend. Positive word-of-mouth should help it hold better than what some might expect, but its' still not going to have a strong hold by any means. A 50% ease to $31 million would propel its' 10-day gross close to $200 million. Still being a potent force, Ted has zero competition this weekend, which will allow it to post perhaps one of the best holds out of the Top 10. A 35% dip to $21 million might result giving the teddy bear R-rated comedy $158 million in 17 days.
With competition from Ice Age 4, it doesn't seem like interest is very high for Brave anymore, despite its' seemingly positive word-of-mouth. By comparison, Up dropped 50% against Dawn of the Dinosaurs' opening weekend, while Madagascar 3 was down only 42% in the face of this films' opening weekend. I think Pixar's latest will drop 50% this weekend, resulting in roughly $10 million for its' fourth frame and bringing its' 24-day total to $195 million. Rounding out the Top 5 will be Savages, which is looking to drop heavy with its' "C+" CinemaScore. A 50% drop to $8 million would give Oliver Stone's latest $31 million in 10 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Magic Mike ($7.5 million, -52%)
#7: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted ($4 million, -46%)
#8: Madea's Witness Protection ($3.5 million, -64%)
#9: Katy Perry - Part of Me 3D ($3.3 million, -55%)
#10: Moonrise Kingdom ($3 million, -33%)
