This weekend will likely fall far short of last years' super-bustling frame, as it will be the battle of the comedies...
Out of all four new releases, R-rated teddy bear comedy (those two descriptions don't go well together, do they?) Ted has the best potential. Starring Mark Wahlberg and Mila Kunis, the films' anticipation and buzz has been high over the last several weeks. However, the film has several disadvantages. One, R-rated comedies have mostly failed so far this year (the only success story so far being 21 Jump Street), and two, it just sounds odd to have a teddy bear act crassly (it might've found much bigger success had director Seth McFarlane decided on turning the idea into a more "family-friendly" movie). But with That's My Boy leaving theaters fast, the field is wide open for it to get a notable number. Critical reception has been positive so far, but it will have some of its' audience taken away by another R-rated comedy competing against it. Opening in over 3,000 theaters, Ted should get away with around $24 million this weekend, taking second place to Brave and it should go on to finish with around $75 million stateside, dependent on word-of-mouth.
Directly counter-programming against the teddy bear is Channing Tatum and a team of strippers in Magic Mike. Tatum has just about been the biggest box office draw this year by far with both The Vow and 21 Jump Street earning more than $120 million apiece, and he is currently seen as a heart-throb. Buzz and anticipation have actually been very high, and promotion has been decent as well. Reviews have been positive so far, but the audience may be spread out between it and Ted. Opening in over 2,900 theaters, Mike will likely dance his way to third place with about $22 million, on its' way to about $60 million domestic.
Tyler Perry also gets into the act with his latest cross-dressing comedy, Madea's Witness Protection. Fast-tracked through production at the beginning of this year, this is Perry's seventh time playing his famous crazy character, and his 14th film that he has directed in his career. The Madea movies are popular and have been successful, but they are also very front-loaded (as is any movie directed by Perry). Reviews are always negative, but that won't be a factor. However, it does seem a bit odd to debut a Madea movie during the summer, and because of the fast-tracking through production, it hasn't given distributor Lionsgate enough time to give it a successful marketing push, so some Perry fans may not even be aware of this. Opening in around 2,000 theaters (a relatively low count), expect this one to go on the low end of Perry's career with a $21 million fourth-place start, on its' way to about $40-$45 million stateside.
Finally, Disney and DreamWorks are hoping for a similar hit to last years' The Help with drama People Like Us. Starring Elizabeth Banks, Chris Pine, Michelle Pfieffer, and Olivia Wilde, the film has recieved moderate buzz, and does stand as good counter-programming for the R-rated comedies on the market. Critical reception has been very positive thus far which could entice some audiences on the fence to go see it. However, with the low release count (2,000 theaters), not very relevant promotion, and a crowded market, its' going to be tough for this to break out. Expect a sixth place debut of about $12 million, on its' way to perhaps $40 million domestic if word-of-mouth is strong.
Opening stronger than expected, Brave is seeing strong weekday business by far, and with no new competition until Ice Age 4 debuts on July 13, a strong hold is likely. Look for a 40% drop to roughly $40 million, keeping the top spot and lifting its' 10-day tally to a strong $142 million. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted should also continue to hold well with no new competition, so a 35% drop to $13 million would give it a great $183 million in 24 days, and give it fifth place for its' fourth weekend.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#7: Prometheus ($4.7 million, -47%)
#8: The Avengers ($4.5 million, -36%)
#9: Snow White and the Huntsman ($4 million, -51%)
#10: Rock of Ages ($3.6 million, -54%)
