After two weeks of Madagascar 3 on top, animation looks to continue to dominate multiplexes at least for the next couple of weeks as Pixar unleashes their latest with Brave. A film of many firsts for Pixar, one strong factor working in the films' favor is that the studio's track record is almost completely spotless (Cars 2 was even was a modest success with $190 million domestic and over $550 million worldwide), with majority of their films reaching $200 million stateside. Also, the smart marketing campaign has successfully brought lots of anticipation and excitement from kids and adults alike. However, there are a few drawbacks. One, even though the reviews have been very positive, a lot of them have called it not as good as Pixar's other films. Madagascar 3 will also still steal some potential boys that may not be interested in Pixar's first with a female lead, and with Ice Age 4 debuting in just three weeks, its' chances at holding well through the end of summer may be limited (though Up did just fine in the face of Ice Age 3 back three years ago). Perhaps the best comparisons are How To Train Your Dragon and Tangled, both of which opened in the $45 million range, and if Brave were to open to similar numbers, it would be considered a serious disappointment. But we need to remember those films were released in the Spring and Fall, and had great word-of-mouth (they both finished with over $200 million stateside), whereas this film is releasing in the summer when kids are out of school. Debuting in over 4,000 venues, look for Brave to land in first place with a bullseye of a good, but not great $57 million. Still, it should be able to build on word-of-mouth and finish with over $200 million stateside.Tim Burton also gets into the act by executive producing supernatural thriller Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter. Distributor 20th Century Fox has marketed the film very well, and anticipation seems relevant. However, supernatural thrillers are tough sells, and the title is odd enough that its' very difficult to predict this films' opening weekend. One thing that will help it certainly is that it will have 3D surcharges to help boost grosses, though it just doesn't seem like this safer bet is going to break out. Fighting its' way into over 3,000 locations, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter should get out of the coffin with an underwhelming $19 million, on its' way to about $55 million stateside.
Lastly, Steve Carell and Keira Knightley prepare for the supposed apocalypse with Seeking A Friend For The End of the World. The R-rated comedy is in a difficult position, debuting a week after Adam Sandler's That's My Boy and a week ahead of Ted. Still though, the marketing and promotion has been relevant and critics so far are giving it positive remarks. Plus, both Carell and Knightley are box office draws and with Sandler's latest bombing, it seems like the field is wide open (temporarily). However, distributor Focus Features rarely ever has a hit, and they're only putting it in around 1,400 venues (perhaps slightly higher after actual counts are revealed tomorrow), which may limit business. I'll expect this weird-looking comedy to debut with around $13 million for the weekend, and it should be able to close with around $35 million stateside.
After two weeks on top, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted will surrender the top spot to a bow-and-arrow wielding princess. The threequel will drop harder than last weekend with more competition, though boys who aren't interested in a female-leading fairy tale may turn to this instead. I think the drop will be at around 50%, giving DreamWorks' latest $17 million, and a 17-day total of $153 million. Prometheus will likely round out the Top 5 with a lesser blow than last frame, so look for a similar drop to about $10.5 million, upping its' gross to $109 million in the same amount of time.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Rock of Ages ($7.5 million, -48%)
#7: Snow White and the Huntsman ($7 million, -47%)
#8: That's My Boy ($6.5 million, -53%)
#9: Men in Black III ($6 million, -40%)
#10: The Avengers ($5.7 million, -36%)
