One of the major head-scratchers this year, board game adaptation Battleship is hoping to replicate the success of the Transformers movies, something that it only has a prayer of a chance of doing. However, the third weekend of May is notorious for launching a major movie, and this one certainly has had a lot of marketing and promotion over the past month. Reviews are mixed to negative so far, and buzz has been good, but not nearly as much as The Avengers. Plus, the starpower isn't very high, with Taylor Kitsch (John Carter), Liam Neeson, and pop singer Rihanna being as strong as it gets. Now, this film could still break out, as people looking for something else to see besides Avengers could find this as a viable option. Perhaps the best comparison would be G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, an action-figure turned into action movie that opened to nearly $55 million on its' way to around $150 million domestic. Opening in 3,750 theaters, look for Battleship to come in second place to The Avengers with a decent, but unspectacular $48 million opening. It should then be able to reach about $115 million by the time it leaves theaters, not enough to recoup its' huge $200 million budget. But no worries, the film has already earned $215 million overseas.
If anything could get any nuttier this weekend, I guess Sacha Baron Cohen would certainly be it. His latest, foreign comedy The Dictator, is hoping to take in the same audience that saw Borat and Bruno, which were both successes and established Cohen as a box office draw. The film has been in promotion for the last few months, and its' buzz has been surprisingly strong. Critical reception has been generally positive as well, but with Dark Shadows and the other new release targeting the female audience, its' going to be hard for it to earn as much as Bruno's $30 million opening. The film already opened yesterday, so it already has burned off some demand. Now playing in 3,003 theaters, look for The Dictator to rouse up $19 million for the three-day weekend, and $25 million since Wednesday. It should then leave theaters with around $55 million.
The "other new release", book adaptation What To Expect When You're Expecting, is hoping to take in a solid number as well. Tracking has been good so far, and promotion has been solid over the past month. Plus, the film boasts a solid cast including Cameron Diaz and Jennifer Lopez (both appeared at the Oscars earlier this year). Fortunately, female-skewing comedies have always done well in the face of big-action blockbusters, one primary example being Bridesmaids. Now while anticipation isn't nearly as high as that film and critics haven't been very kind toward it, this one just looks like the safest bet this weekend. One thing that might prevent it from opening to a strong number is that The Dictator and Dark Shadows will also be trying to get the female audience as well. Opening in 3,021 theaters, Expecting should be in a close race for third with The Dictator and earn about $18 million for the weekend. It should then see good legs and finish with around $55 million.
Based on my projections, The Avengers is set for a third-straight weekend on top. Even though Battleship could still take away some of its' potential audience, the word-of-mouth is amazing, and its' very clear that this is the biggest crowd-pleaser in a long time. Expect a 50% drop, giving the superhero blockbuster roughly $52 million for its' third weekend, for a monster 17-day total of $458 million!! Dark Shadows will round out the Top 5, and will do little to improve its' status as perhaps one of the summers' bigger disappointments, plus much more competition for females isn't going to do it any good. A 50% drop to around $15 million would give it $54 million in 10 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Think Like A Man ($3.5 million, -41%)
#7: The Hunger Games ($3 million, -34%)
#8: The Lucky One ($2.6 million, -38%)
#9: The Pirates! Band of Misfits ($2 million, -34%)
#10: The Five-Year Engagement ($1.8 million, -47%)
