Box office is looking to continue to be up from last year...
The only new release brave enough to compete against the mighty Avengers is Tim Burton and Johnny Depp's latest collaboration Dark Shadows. Based on a 1970's TV show, the vampire-centric movie is hoping to bring in the fans of the show and Burton and Depp's fanbase. Both celebrities are a money-making duo, as Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Alice in Wonderland were all smash hits, while the more darker and adult-oriented Sweeney Todd was a critical and awards season darling. Certainly there is a strong following for their collaborations. However, there are a few things that are working against it. Most importantly, Avengers opened above and beyond expectations, and is expected to at least take in another $90 million or so this weekend, taking away some of its' potential audience. Also, the film is very dark in nature so it won't get nearly as much tickets sold as Charlie and Alice. Finally, critical reception has been mixed and at the low end of Burton's career, which may scare off some people that are on the fence about seeing this. Though based on the starpower alone, this film does have what it takes to break out, but based on buzz, I think Dark Shadows will scare up a decent $36 million and second place for its' debut. It should then play for the rest of the month, and earn between $90-$100 million stateside.
The Avengers blew everyone away last weekend ($207.4 million!!! WOW!!!!). And with excellent critical and audience reception (A+ CinemaScore), it seems destined for an excellent hold. But we have to remember that its' core audience probably showed up already, and even though word-of-mouth is spreading, superhero films usually are very front-loaded. Dark Shadows will take away some of its' IMAX screens and some of its' gross potential, but analysts are believing that it will be the first movie in history to earn over $100 million on its' second weekend. Based on recent trajectories, I personally don't think that's going to happen. Though stranger things have happened recently, so it wouldn't be surprising if it did. I'm going to go with a 55% drop to a still-strong $94 million, and bringing its' 10-day total to a mammoth $365 million, already ranking in the Top 20 all-time domestically.
Here's the rest of the Top 10:
#3: Think Like a Man ($4.5 million, -43%)
#4: The Pirates! Band of Misfits ($3.8 million, -32%)
#5: The Hunger Games ($3.6 million, -38%)
#6: The Lucky One ($3 million, -46%)
#7: The Five-Year Engagement ($2.7 million, -46%)
#8: Chimpanzee ($1.7 million, -31%)
#9: The Three Stooges ($1.2 million, -34%)
#10: The Raven ($1 million, -54%)
