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The last weekend of the year presents two films that are hoping to at least hold a candle to the mighty Hunger Games (one of them you'd expect to be mighty)...
The BIG question this weekend is will Wrath of the Titans live up to its' predecessor? That movie, Clash of the Titans, was out exactly two years ago, and debuted to an impressive $61.5 million, on its' way to $150 million domestic and over $400 million worldwide. However, that movie wasn't liked much by audiences, and some believe it was the start of the "3D backlash" in which audiences didn't show up like they used to. Now, I must credit the marketing team at distributor Warner Bros. for doing a top-notch job of promoting the film, from March Madness commercials, to interviews with star Sam Worthington (his fanbase can't drive this film to success though, due to the poor performance of Man on a Ledge). Perhaps the best comparison for this would be Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, another sequel to a disliked film which has struggled and hasn't even earned half of its' predecessor. Despite mixed to negative critical reception, 3D and IMAX 3D will boost grosses and the teenage audience that already saw Hunger Games should definitely see it, so this sequel won't bomb nearly as badly as Ghost Rider 2 did. But, its' not going to be nearly as impressive as its' predecessor. Debuting in over 3,500 locations, look for the return of the Titans to storm up $43 million and second place on its' debut, and that should be a high enough number for it to reach at least $110 million domestically.
Meanwhile, the other new release is targeting family audiences. Fantasy comedy (and the first of two Snow White adaptations this year) Mirror Mirror is hoping to serve as counter-programming for both Titans and The Hunger Games. Starring Julia Roberts as the evil queen, the Tarsem Singh-directed film has seen good promotion and mild anticipation. On a more positive note, besides a four-week old Lorax, families will be looking for something new to see, and surprisingly positive reviews from critics so far and the starpower of Roberts should also help. Fairy tale adaptations has always been successful, but the most recent live-action one would be Enchanted (which is part adaptation and part original), though this flick will likely not come close to that films' numbers ($34 million in three days). Debuting in around 3,200 theaters, look for Mirror Mirror to come in third place for the weekend with a decent $21 million, on its' way to a finish of around $65 million.
Following its' $152.5 million opening, The Hunger Games is very well-positioned to hold the box office crown for a second straight weekend. Unfortunately, weekday grosses have been going down over the week, indicating that it may be more front-loaded than what its' "A" CinemaScore suggests. It still will plunge this weekend because a lot of fans have already rushed out to see it, but it should hold better than the Twilight or Harry Potter films usually do. I'd expect a 55% drop to $68 million, bringing its' 10-day tally to a mammoth $256 million, on its' way to $350 million plus.
21 Jump Street still has no real competition, and even though Titans may take away its' audience a bit, I still think this will slip just 40% from last frame to $12.5 million, for a 17-day total of $90 million. Dr. Suess' The Lorax will round out the Top 5, and will have some competition with Mirror Mirror this weekend, but being the only animated film on the market should keep its' drop under 50%. I'm expecting $7.5 million for its' fifth weekend, down 44% and bringing its' one-month total to a very impressive $189 million, the best showing for an animated film since Tangled.
Here is a look at the rest of the Top 10:
#6: John Carter ($2.1 million, -60%)
#7: Act of Valor ($1.2 million, -40%)
#8: A Thousand Words ($1.1 million, -44%)
#9: October Baby ($1 million, -38%)
#10: Project X ($850,000, -55%)
