At the beginning of the month, I mentioned that it would be a close race for the top spot, but based on tracking, I finally have found a way to separate them from first through fourth place...Here is the projected Top 10...
#1: The Vow
Inspired by true events, this love story has been surging in buzz over the past month, add in the fact that its' debuting just before Valentine's Day, and this looks like it has the best shot at taking the top spot. Rachel McAdams and Channing Tatum are bankable stars, most famous for being in films like The Notebook and Dear John, two more examples which earned over $80 million each at the box office. Similar numbers look like a solid target for this flick, though the film also carries a story that really can connect with audiences, which could spawn positive word-of-mouth and give the film strong legs throughout the rest of the month.
Weekend Prediciton: $32 million
Estimated Final Gross: $90-$100 million
#2: Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (3D)
3-D conversions of classics are big this year, and following the successes of The Lion King (near $95 million) and Beauty and the Beast (expected to top out at around $50 million), George Lucas is hoping that his audience will come out in huge numbers for the return of the internationally popular saga. The buzz for this flick has been growing also ever since its' debut trailer back in November, but, while chronologically first and the biggest-grosser of all six installments worldwide (grossing nearly $950 million worldwide back in its' initial release in 1999), it is considered by fans the worst out of all six films. Add in the fact that it has to compete against Journey 2 and Big Miracle for family audiences, and it's likely that it won't be able to open as high as Lion King, but at least get higher numbers than Beauty.
Weekend Prediction: $24 million
Estimated Final Gross: $65-$70 million
#3: Safe House
For older audiences, there's always Denzel Washington, one of the few bankable stars that can score hit after hit after hit. This time, he's teaming with Green Lantern's Ryan Reynolds in something that looks quite a bit like Contraband (expected to top out at $70 million) based on the commercials. Reynolds has been on a bit of a slump lately, but he still has his fanbase, while Washington hasn't been in a movie since November 2010's Unstoppable ($29 million start, $75 million finish). Buzz has been strong over the last few weeks, and with this being the only choice for the older men not interested in romance or robots, it could be a huge hit, though the R rating and still some competition with The Grey and Chronicle will probably make it open with a lower gross than Unstoppable.
Weekend Prediction: $22 million
Estimated Final Gross: $60-$65 million
#4: Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
The final new release of the weekend unfortunately looks like the odd one out. Following in the footsteps of 2008's Journey To The Center of the Earth ($21 million opening, $100 million finish), the sequel brings in mostly a new cast (since Brendan Fraser dropped out) including Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (Tooth Fairy, Fast Five and Race To Witch Mountain), Vanessa Hudgens, and Michael Caine. Distributor Warner Bros. is hoping to take in a good chunk of the family audiences, especially with ones who already own all the Star Wars movies at home, which actually probably is a large group. But family sequels rarely do better business than their predecessors, and buzz hasn't been very relevant until this week. While it does have a chance at breaking out, I just don't see it improving from past disappointments. On a positive side, overseas business has been strong, with already nearly $50 million in just 20% of the international market.
Weekend Prediction: $15 million
Estimated Final Gross: $50 million
#5: Chronicle
There's a lot of competition out there trying to get teenagers now, so don't expect a good second weekend hold, at least its' budget was cheap...
Weekend Prediction: $11 million (-50%)
Estimated 10-Day Gross: $39 million
#6: The Woman in Black
Horror flicks don't fare well either, and while Underworld: Awakening has defied expectations somewhat, a "B-" CinemaScore grade won't make it replicate those same holds.
Weekend Prediction: $9 million (-57%)
Estimated 10-Day Gross: $34 million
#7: Big Miracle
While there is more competition out for its' audience, its' recieved positive word-of-mouth from audiences, and that could give it the best hold out of all the second-weekend releases, but, its' still far away from being a success story.
Weekend Prediction: $5 million (-36%)
Estimated 10-Day Gross: $14.5 million
#8: The Grey
More competition isn't going to keep Liam Neeson away from the wolves for much longer...
Weekend Prediction: $4.5 million (-52%)
Estimated 17-Day Gross: $42.5 million
#9: The Descendants
The Oscars are still a few weeks away, and George Clooney's flick should still remain in the Top 10 with great word-of-mouth...
Weekend Prediction: $3.5 million (-34%)
Estimated 91-Day Gross: $71 million
#10: One for the Money
Katherine Heigl's romance comedy is going to flip because of The Vow, but limited choices for females alone could keep its' drop under 50%...
Weekend Prediction: $3 million (-43%)
Estimated 17-Day Gross: $24 million
Milestone News: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo became the 30th (and last) 2011 film to cross the $100 million barrier on Monday. The 30 2011 films in total to cross that barrier was equal to 2010, and down slightly from 32 in 2009.
