January and February are only the beginning of the year, with total box office running already far ahead of 2011. Now the question is whether March will keep the trend up or start showing signs of fatigue in audiences. Last year, animated western Rango and sci-fi epic Battle: Los Angeles led March 2011 to a total cumulative gross of $682.4 million, down 18% from 2010, but up 11% from 2009...with a big slate of potential blockbusters, March 2012 seems well-positioned to at least be on par with earlier years...
Here are early forecasts for all five weeks based on tracking:
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March 2
The first weekend of March has seemed to be a good date to launch an animated film. And this year, the creators behind the hits Despicable Me and Hop adapt Dr. Suess' The Lorax and bring it to the big screen. Perhaps one of the safest bets this year, The Lorax has seen the same big promotional campaign that pursued the other two, with lots of commercials and advertisements on NBC. But, with a celebrity voice cast and with practically no competition to deal with until the end of April, and this is definitely a sure-fire hit. The last Dr. Suess' adaptation, Horton Hears A Who! opened to $45 million around this same time four years ago, while last year's Rango opened to $38 million this same weekend last year, so Lorax should open in-between those two numbers with 3D added.
Counter-programming against Dr. Suess' is some crazy teenagers in found-footage flick Project X. Buzz is already high for the R-rated comedy, and it is tracking very well. Chronicle, another found-footage flick from last month, overperformed with an expected total gross of nearly $65 million. But, with practically no competition for young adults, and this could be another big hit.
Long-Distance Prediction: Unless if it performs like The Hangover, Project X will likely come in second to The Lorax, which is well-positioned to have the years' biggest opening by far with an opening above $40 million. The teenage comedy might settle for an opening closer to $30 million.
March 9
Looking to try and be the next big sci-fi blockbuster, Disney is risking its' big-budget flick John Carter. Based on an Edgar Rice Burroughs book series, the film is hoping to do better business than Prince of Persia and The Sorcerer's Apprentice, which both disappointed in 2010. Unfortunately, tracking has been very soft on social media sites, which isn't a good sign. Unless if it can pick up in buzz in a hurry or it can successfully attract big audiences, John Carter may be in the running for the month's biggest domestic disappointment.
Eddie Murphy is back in comedy A Thousand Words, which is hoping to attract family audiences (despite its' PG-13 rating, its' themes are family-adjacent). But Murphy has had a difficult time connecting with audiences as both Meet Dave and Imagine That were box office disasters. But, with better promotion, this could do better than the other two, but its' going to be inconsequential compared to the other March releases.
Open Road Films is also hoping to ride on the success of The Grey with horror film Silent House. Supposedly inspired by true events, there is no horror competition on the market right now, and both The Devil Inside and The Woman in Black have outwitted the highest of expectations. But, with no real existent marketing campaign, I don't see this coming close to those two films' final grosses or The Grey's.
Long-Distance Prediction: Unless if it proves tracking wrong, John Carter could end up in second behind The Lorax (if its' opening is as high as I am predicting). A Thousand Words and Silent House both will probably end up below the Top 5.
March 16
There is only one wide release set for March 16. TV series adaptation 21 Jump Street, which has seen big promotion over the last month since the Super Bowl. Starring bankable stars Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill, the action comedy is hoping to take away some of John Carter's audience. With already some buzz coming in, there's a really strong chance that this can break out.
Long-Distance Prediction: Jump Street should win this round, with grosses near $30 million for the weekend.
March 23
Another funny thing. There is also only one wide release set for this weekend. And its' the movie that everyone is already talking about, that being The Hunger Games. The book adaptation is tracking overwhelmingly strong among teens and young adults, and with the books being popular as it is, we could literally be seeing the next Twilight here.
Long-Distance Prediction: True to its' awareness and high-anticipation, Hunger Games should easily win with the year's biggest numbers so far.
March 30
Two years after Clash of the Titans did strong business over Easter weekend, a sequel was made, Wrath of the Titans. Strong promotion has been in full swing for a while, but the original Clash wasn't liked very much by audiences or critics. Last month, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance came from negative buzz on its' predecessor, and opened to less than half of its' predecessor. This sequel won't bomb as badly, but it certainly won't open nearly as high as its' predecessor, but it should turn a big profit overseas.
Counter-programming against Titans is the month's only other real family offering. Fantasy comedy Mirror Mirror is hoping to be a big hit similar to the Narnia films. With Julia Roberts being a solid draw at the box office, that could help this twist on the Snow White story (oddly enough, its' the first of two twists on the story releasing this year, with Snow White and the Huntsman set for June). Promotion has been good, though buzz hasn't been very strong as of now, but not much competition for family audiences, plus Spring Break the next week for many schools should definitely help this do good numbers in the face of Titans.
Long-Distance Prediction: Titans will win, but its' weekend gross will likely fall short of $50 million, Mirror Mirror is probably going to get something closer to $20 million in third or fourth place.
