Following its' strong $12.8 million start in IMAX theaters, Mission Impossible -- Ghost Protocol is being expanded nationwide into 3,400+ theaters on Wednesday. With Sherlock Holmes 2 underperforming, its' very likely that this will take the top spot. Its' excellent limited run is a strong indicator that this could be the next major holiday hit, but star Tom Cruise has been out of the public eye for the last few years, starring in just a few films that have been bombs. And unlike the others, Ghost Protocol acts more like a series reboot rather than a four-quel, as the last mission, III, was a disappointment with just $134 million domestic. Add in the fact that the director that has absolutely no experience with live-action pictures (Brad Bird, who directed the animated flicks The Iron Giant, The Incredibles and Ratatouille), and this one seemed doomed early on. But, critics (95% positive on Rotten Tomatoes) and audiences have seemed to have warmly welcomed this latest entry. However, with so much competition yanking adults in different directions, the number may not be as high as what audiences and critics are suggesting. With all those factors in mind, the new Mission: Impossible should earn about $35 million over the three-day weekend, with around $47 million since Wednesday and $60 million since its' IMAX launch, then should go on to gross $175 million by the time it leaves theaters.
Counter-programming against Tom Cruise is book adaption The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. Taken from a worldwide best-selling book from a Swedish author named Luc Besson and from the original foreign film that was in limited release stateside early last year, Tattoo is already highly-anticipated within a select crowd. Just recently, distributor Columbia Pictures announced they were moving the release up one day to tomorrow, which could work well in its' favor. Critics have adored it (89% on Rotten Tomatoes) and its' already given star Rooney Mara a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress. Add in the fact that it also has starpower with Daniel Craig and Christopher Plummer, plus the advertising calling it "the feel bad movie of the year", and it could be a strong choice for adults heading into the next couple of weeks and into awards season. Opening in over 2,800 theaters, Tattoo should score a solid $22 million over the three-day weekend, with about $30 million since its' Tuesday opening. Then it should benefit from awards season buzz and go on to gross around $100 million stateside.
The other Wednesday release is the first of two films directed by the legendary Steven Spielberg. 3-D animated adventure and comic book adaption The Adventures of Tintin hopes to capture the fans that have followed the director (and producer Peter Jackson) as well as the family audience. Based on the famous comics, the film has seen good promotion and advertisement over the last few months. One strong factor working in the films' favor is that it has been playing overseas for the last two months, and has earned a huge $230 million on the international front. Also, critics (82% on Rotten Tomatoes) have been reviewing it as a thrilling adventure similar to Indiana Jones. But, there are also a number of factors working against it. One, animation has struggled this year, with none reaching the $200 million mark domestically that five movies last year reached, and it doesn't look like that this will buck the trend. Also, its' shot in motion capture animation, a format that has largely been ignored lately (Mars Needs Moms bombed earlier this year with just $20 million), and todays' kids aren't familiar with the foreign comics. In that case, opening in over 3,000 theaters, Tintin should rack up about $18 million over the three-day weekend, with about $25 million since Wednesday. It should then benefit from a strong New Years' weekend to get to around $100 million domestically.
The lone Friday release is also aiming for families, Cameron Crowe's We Bought A Zoo. Based on a true story, the drama is hoping to get the same audience that saw Dolphin Tale ($71 million) earlier this year. But Dolphin had less competition to deal with, where Zoo will have to deal with five other competitors still in wide release, for the same audience. Also, releasing on Friday is a bit of a risky move, since Christmas Eve, which lands on Saturday, is a dead zone at the box office, which likely will make its' debut weekend front-loaded, so its' true test for success probably won't happen until next weekend. Also, this is Crowe's first attempt at making a family movie, when his previous attempts were for adults. But, the starpower of Matt Damon, Scarlett Johanson, and Thomas Haden Church and good critical reception (68% on Rotten Tomatoes) should also help boost grosses. Opening in over 3,000 theaters, Zoo should take in about $8.5 million over the three-day weekend, then see a strong New Year's weekend, on its' way to a finish in the $65 million range.
Lastly, we have the two films opening on Sunday, Christmas Day. These two likely won't score high grosses on that one day, but their true measure of success will be tested over next weekend. Steven Spielberg's other Christmas release, war drama War Horse, is aiming for the same crowd that went to see Saving Private Ryan back close to a decade ago. But that film carried an R rating, while this one is softer at a PG-13 rating. Critics have been positive towards the legendary director's latest adventure (78% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), and its' been promoted as an adventure for all ages, though that may be a challenge as there are other films with much stronger appeal. But, Horse has already seen strong awards season buzz, earning a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, which will certainly help with strong legs into January. Opening in more than 2,300 theaters, look for War Horse to ride off with $4 million on Christmas Day and then see a strong New Year's weekend. Right now, its' a mixed bag on what it will end with, but around $60 million looks well within range.
The final new release (whew!) is the least-anticipated and will likely be the one to flinch this weekend. 3-D sci-fi thriller The Darkest Hour also hits theaters on Christmas Day. And while its' plot of alien invasion is intriguing, audiences will already have their fill with the fourth Mission Impossible for action. Perhaps the only thing that might benefit for it will be the die-hard sci-fi geeks that aren't interested in Tom Cruise. Perhaps the best comparison would be last years' Skyline, which had high anticipation but bombed with just short of $20 million domestic. However, an advantage over that will be that the film will see a good boost over New Year's weekend, plus 3-D and IMAX 3-D surcharges, which should allow it to easily pass that films' gross. No critics have given it reviews yet, but opening in over 2,200 theaters, The Darkest Hour should have a small shock on Christmas Day, about $2 million, then go on to gross about $30 million by the time its' all said and done. But for this weekend, it won't make the Top 10.
The holdovers will also be scrambling for audiences. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is hoping to see strong legs, but so much competition isn't going to make business replicate itself. But, strong weekday business should help its' drop to be under 50%, so a 40% ease to $24.5 million would give it close to $90 million in 10 days (provided that its' daily grosses are what I'm thinking). Alvin & The Chipmunks: Chipwrecked will also hope to sail over the extended competition, but the G rating should keep young audiences around, so a 35% ease to $15.5 million would give it $63 million in the same amount of time (again provided by the fact if daily grosses are what I'm thinking).
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Mission Impossible --- Ghost Protocol ($34.8 million)
#2: Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($24.6 million, -39%)
#3: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo ($22.1 million)
#4: The Adventures of Tintin ($18 million)
#5: Alvin & The Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($15.3 million, -36%)
#6: We Bought A Zoo ($8.6 million)
#7: New Year's Eve ($4.3 million, -41%)
#8: War Horse ($3.9 million)
#9: Hugo ($2.9 million, -30%)
#10: Arthur Christmas ($2.8 million, -23%)
The Darkest Hour will likely end up in 14th or 15th place with $2 million.
NOTE: There will be no Friday update due to Saturday being Christmas Eve and the Weekend Box Office report will be posted on Monday afternoon rather than Sunday afternoon (being Christmas Day)...
