Two sequels with massive potential hit theaters on the weekend before Christmas, which typically usually is strong...but its' going to take strong performances from each to beat last years'...
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Robert Downey, Jr. and Jude Law are back as the world-famous detective and his sidekick Watson. Releasing nearly two years after the original Sherlock Holmes, that film was a blockbuster, opening to the Christmas Day record of $24.6 million and earned a strong $62 million on its' opening weekend, and the fact that this was in the face of Avatar is even more impressive. And with nearly $210 million domestic, its' obvious then why a sequel was fast-tracked. Because of opening a week earlier, I don't think this sequel will match the first one's opening, which opened on days that parents were off work and kids were off school. Critical reception has been positive (which is a rarity for a sequel) and advertising and promotion have been high over the last few months. And even though it will have to compete against more films for its' audience over Christmas week, it should still capitalize on strong weekday business. The first one never reached the top spot due to Avatar, but this is definitely a shoe-in.
Weekend Prediction: $56 million
Estimated Final Gross: $195-$210 million
#2: Alvin & The Chipmunks: ChipWrecked
Holmes isn't the only one that's returning, those singing little squeakers are back as well. And the funny thing is, the first two Alvin films debuted in third place and never went any higher. This should reverse the trend slightly, but it doesn't look like it has a shot at the top spot. Like Sherlock, this threequel was also fast-tracked after The Squeakquel was one of those rare sequels to improve from its' predecessor. But, its' predecessors opened over Christmas week, and opening a week earlier once again means that this one won't open as high. However, with the Thanksgiving holdovers starting to fade away, this will likely emerge as the biggest-grossing family film this holiday season. However, it will definitely see strong weekday business over the next couple of weeks and should at least come close to matching its' predecessors. Critics once again have slapped it with negative reviews, but that certainly won't affect it.
Weekend Prediction: $37 million
Estimated Final Gross: $180-$200 million
#3: New Year's Eve
After its' disappointing start last weekend, it will try to have some strong legs. I don't expect it to plunge like Valentine's Day, but it won't see a strong hold either.
Weekend Prediction: $7.5 million (-42%)
Estimated 10-Day Total: $25.2 million
#4: The Sitter
It doesn't have far to go to become a success, but due to more competition for its' audience, its' not going to hold like the R-rated comedies this summer.
Weekend Prediction: $5.5 million (-45%)
Estimated 10-Day Total: $19 million
#5: Arthur Christmas
Even though it has Alvin to deal with, its' still the only family-friendly holiday film around. Certainly it will drop harder than last weekend, but it will jump ahead of its' two competitors this weekend. Hopefully it will see strong business over next week.
Weekend Prediction: $5 million (-23%)
Estimated 26-Day Total: $40 million
#6: The Muppets
Looks like it may be close to the end of its' rope. Muppets will likely be affected the most out of all the family flicks as Alvin seems much more similar. Though the fact that its' the Christmas season should make it drop around the same as Tangled. Because of its' strong brand, it should also see strong weekday business.
Weekend Prediction: $4.5 million (-36%)
Estimated 26-Day Total: $72 million
#7: Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
I'm sure if you're reading this, you're gonna be like "what the heck are you thinking?" But remember, its' official wide release isn't until Wednesday, and distributor Paramount Pictures is only releasing this in 400 IMAX theaters on Friday, so its' business is going to be low. One advantage is that it is releasing with a prologue to next years' highly-anticipated The Dark Knight Rises. But, if films are released in IMAX in addition to regular theaters, IMAX only covers about 5-10% of the weekend gross. And with the format having expensive ticket prices, its' hard to imagine this earning a signifigant number. The only audience will be the die-hard fans of the franchise that will want to see the film early, but even some of them might would rather wait until Wednesday. Full analysis on this coming on the next prediction update...
(Unofficial) Weekend Prediction: $4.2 million
#8: Hugo
With the Golden Globe nominations being announced tomorrow, it will really all depend on how many nominations Martin Scorcese's masterpiece gets. If it gets a Best Picture nod, it could see a stronger hold than what I am saying, but the strong buzz should keep it holding well.
Weekend Prediction: $4 million (-33%)
Estimated 26-Day Total: $40 million
#9: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I
This film too is approaching the end of its' rope. Part I will have to hold better than what I'm thinking to even have a small chance at beating New Moon's final gross. More competition for the teenage audience will make this drop harder than last weekend.
Weekend Prediction: $3.5 million (-56%)
Estimated 1-Month Total: $265 million
#10: Young Adult
Expanding into 1,000+ theaters, Paramount is hoping awards season buzz will propel this to new heights like last years' Black Swan, but that film didn't see as good of an average as what it had in limited release. This will likely limit its' opening in wide release, but the facts that it will further expand as the Christmas season progresses and the amount of nominations for the Golden Globes should give it strong playability into January.
Weekend Prediction: $3 million
Estimated Final Gross: $25-$35 million
Possible change: The Descendants is also expected to earn around $3 million and could easily take the tenth spot.
