After three weekends of having the same film on top, ensemble romantic comedy New Year's Eve will almost certainly get dibs on first place this weekend. The flick may seem original, but it actually is (though some might deny it) a sequel/spin-off to last years' Valentine's Day, which became a hit with a huge $56 million opening, but would crash to a $110 million finish. With the same director (Garry Marshall), plus a stellar cast, with Sarah Jessica Parker, Josh Duhamel, Sofia Vergara, Abigail Breslin, Halle Berry, Jim Belushi, and Robert De Niro to name a few, this looks to to take in the same date crowd that flew out in droves to see its' predecessor. But, the opening will likely be far from its' predecessor due to the fact that the first one grossed more because of it opening on the weekend of the holiday and was more accessible to its' crowd. Plus, the cast for this one is less popular than the ones shown in Valentine's (which had big names such as Jessica Alba, Anne Hathaway, George Lopez, Jamie Foxx, and Julia Roberts), though opening a few weeks in advance will keep this film playing until New Years' weekend, so legs will be better than its' predecessor. Critical reception has been negative, but that likely won't affect its' gross. Opening in around 5,000 screens at over 3,300 theaters, New Year's Eve should see its' ball drop at about $28 million, and then see good legs and finish its' countdown at roughly $90 million.
The other new release probably won't be quite as fortunate, as Jonah Hill is hoping his popularity with young men will shine in the newest R-rated comedy, The Sitter. R-rated comedies have been the biggest success story this year, with Bridesmaids, Bad Teacher, Horrible Bosses, and The Hangover Part II all succeeding, but those were released during the summer. And while there were some misses as well, such as Friends with Benefits and The Change-Up, the genre has its' fanbase, and they do tend to see great legs. As for Hill himself, he hasn't been in much besides Get Him To The Greek, which was a modest success with around $60 million last year and a supporting role in Moneyball. But besides that, the only other stuff he has done recently was doing voices in DreamWorks Animation's How To Train Your Dragon and MegaMind. Another reason why its' gross will be trimmed down from the other successes will be due to the fact that these kinds of comedies don't quite fare well in the holiday movie season. No estimated theater count has been made available, but Sitter should find its' way to around $15 million for its' debut, with a domestic finish of around $45 million looking well within range.
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I will have to give up the top spot, and its' drop won't be any better than the last couple weeks. Look for another 60% tumble to roughly $7 million, and bringing its' total to $259 million in 24 days. The Muppets will likely this time leap-frog past Twilight to claim third place, as there is no new family pics to challenge it. Look for the reboot to stabilize with a 30% ease to $8 million, for a $68 million tally in 17 days. This should also benefit well for Arthur Christmas, who saw a relatively strong hold last frame, and the holiday theme will become more relevant towards its' audience. A 25% ease to $5.5 million would give it $32 million in 17 days. Hugo is expanding into more theaters, and it will also hold well again, with a 33% ease to $5 million, for also a $32 million tally in the same amount of time.
The Descendants is also further expanding into more theaters, and will sustain its' audience well. So a 25% ease to $3.5 million would give it $22 million in 24 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: New Year's Eve ($28.1 million)
#2: The Sitter ($15 million)
#3: The Muppets ($8.2 million, -28%)
#4: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I ($6.8 million, -60%)
#5: Arthur Christmas ($5.7 million, -24%)
#6: Hugo ($5.1 million, -32%)
#7: Happy Feet Two ($3.9 million, -34%)
#8: The Descendants ($3.4 million, -26%)
#9: Jack & Jill ($3.1 million, -43%)
#10: Immortals ($2.4 million, -47%)
