Box office might continue to slump even with the presence of two major sequels, though they are seriously underperforming...
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is #1, as expected, but it stumbled out of the gate with an estimated $14.7 million on Friday. That is just over half of the first ones' huge $26.4 million opening day. But we have to remember, that was on Christmas Day two years ago and more people were off work/school. When we factor that in plus the presence of Mission: Impossible IV, its' not entirely unexpected. But obviously its' going to have to see strong legs. By comparison, Tron: Legacy earned $17.5 million on this same Friday last year, on its' way to a $44 million opening. Holmes earned positive notice from critics and an "A-" CinemaScore grade, which might translate to a stronger multiplier. Based on recent trajectories, the second Sherlock is headed for a disappointing $38.5 million start. But, since it opened nine days earlier, it does have a shot at making up ground over the next couple of weeks.
News didn't get any better for the other new wide release. Families just aren't going to the movies like they used to, and Alvin & The Chipmunks: ChipWrecked was unable to come close to replicating its' predecessors' successes. The threequel earned just an estimated $6.8 million on its' debut, which was roughly half of the originals' $13.3 million Friday four years ago, which would go on to gross $44.3 million for the weekend. It also couldn't hold a candle to The Squeakquel's $18.8 million first Friday. But we also have to take into consideration that families are busy with Christmas shopping and kids were in school today. And the squeakers even fell behind The Muppets $12.2 million Friday, and even a strong multiplier won't make it match that films' $29.2 million weekend. But, it should also make up ground over the holidays as it has a few day advantage on its' predecessor, but Fox is going to have to hope that The Adventures of Tintin and its' own stablemate We Bought A Zoo won't get in its' way. Look for the chipmunks to sing their way to a disappointing $25 million for the weekend, and it was given a "B+" CinemaScore grade.
While Sherlock and Alvin didn't show much promise, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol was able to see an exceptionally promising performance in just 425 IMAX theaters, grossing a strong estimated $4.1 million. The film doesn't open officially until Wednesday, but this number can partially be credited due to the prologue of The Dark Knight Rises being shown with it. Its' multiplier won't be as strong as other new releases because of the expensive ticket prices, but a $10.5 million weekend looks to be in store.
The final new release may be lucky to hit the Top 10, Young Adult struggled in wide release with just an estimated $1.1 million. Though that was enough for seventh place on Friday, its' likely to be beaten by three or four other films ranked just below it as it only got a couple of nominations on the Golden Globes. Right now, its' headed for $3 million.
As for holdovers, New Year's Eve showed little promise, though its' 51% ease to an estimated $2.5 million was a much better hold than Valentine's Day through the same point. A second weekend of $7 million isn't strong enough to keep its' chances of playing to the holiday alive. The Sitter also didn't keep itself around, collapsing 63% to an estimated $1.4 million, and will likely head for a $4.5 million second weekend. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I held better this frame despite more competition, easing 46% to an estimated $1.3 million, and is headed closer towards $4 million.
The family holdovers struggled in their fourth frames in the face of Alvin, though they will likely pick up speed over the next couple of weeks. Hugo held the best as it earned five nominations including Best Picture-Drama at the Golden Globes, easing 38% to an estimated $1 million, slotting in eighth. The Muppets rounded out the Top 10, but dropped 49% to an estimated $860,000. Outside the Top 10, Arthur Christmas slid 44% to an estimated $840,000. All three will make it into the Top 10 one last time with weekends between $3.5 and $4 million, with Arthur looking the most likely to snag seventh place.
Here is the projected Top 10 (updated):
#1: Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($38.7 million)
#2: Alvin & The Chipmunks: ChipWrecked ($25 million)
#3: Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol (IMAX) ($10.6 million)
#4: New Year's Eve ($7.2 million, -45%)
#5: The Sitter ($4.6 million, -53%)
#6: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I ($4 million, -47%)
#7: Arthur Christmas ($3.9 million, -40%)
#8: The Muppets ($3.7 million, -47%)
#9: Hugo ($3.5 million, -40%)
#10: The Descendants ($3 million, -33%) or Young Adult ($3 million)
