Last year it was the first part of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, this year, its' the first part of another series-ending book adaption, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I. The fourth film in the ever-so-popular Twilight movie series is looking to try and break the November opening weekend record, set by its' November predecessor, New Moon ($142 million), a feat that probably will happen since its' the first part of the final chapter, meaning fans will likely come out in stronger crowds. However, the first part of the Harry Potter final book grossed nearly $90 million less than Part II, but maybe that's just wishful thinking. The Twilight movies have a huge fanbase and have been the biggest successes of distributor Summit Entertainment's history, though we will not see the opening weekend record (held by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II ($169.2 million)) broken until at least the second part comes out this same weekend next year (unless if The Dark Knight Rises beats it first). Critical reception has been generally negative, but that isn't a factor. Debuting in over 9,000 screens at 4,000+ theaters, look for Part I to dawn at $75 million on opening day and $147 million for its' opening weekend. Then it should go on to gross over $300 million domestically, around the same as the last two entries, and reaching the $1 billion mark worldwide being a certain possibility.
The other new release is looking for a fraction of that audience, and that is the animated sequel Happy Feet Two. The 3-D adventure follows five years after the original Happy Feet, which earned nearly $200 million domestically and nearly $400 million worldwide, as well as being the only non-Pixar film (for now) to win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature (coincidentally, Cars was the only Pixar film to not win that award, and both Cars and Happy Feet are releasing their sequels in the same year). However, despite the fact the first film has a loyal fanbase, I'm just not convinced that this is going to be the next major animated hit. You may ask why, but there's a good reason why I'm not thinking good results for this. And that reason is that this film is literally trapped, competing against a still-strong Puss in Boots and Jack & Jill is one thing, but one week from now, its' going to have to deal with The Muppets, Arthur Christmas, and Hugo for the same audience. Even if it was moved to December, that would've made its' run a lot shorter and it would still have to face another wave of family movies launching within one week of each other for the Christmas holiday. In other words, the film may just have five days to prove a point, and unlike the critically-acclaimed first film, critics have responded negatively to this sequel, though like Twilight, that shouldn't be a factor. Opening in around 6,000 screens at 3,600+ theaters, look for Happy Feet Two to open to a modest but unspectacular $34 million, and that should be enough to at least guarantee nearly $120 million by the time it leaves theaters.
After topping last week, Immortals is looking to sustain its' audience, but it opened in the calm before the Twilight storm, and action films hardly ever hold well. A 55% drop to $14 million would give the R-rated flick $56 million in 10 days. Jack & Jill should fare better as it is the only live-action family flick on the market, so a 45% ease to also $14 million would give it $44 million in 10 days. After three strong weekends, Puss in Boots will finally be tamed with Happy Feet Two stealing its' audience, a drop near 50% to roughly $12.5 million would give the animated comedy $125 million in 24 days. Tower Heist will have to look to an overseas run to help it make a profit, as it looks to drop another 45% to $7 million would give it $54 million in 17 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I ($147 million)
#2: Happy Feet Two ($33.8 million)
#3: Immortals ($14.2 million, -54%)
#2: Happy Feet Two ($33.8 million)
#3: Immortals ($14.2 million, -54%)
#4: Jack & Jill ($14 million, -45%)
#5: Puss in Boots ($12.3 million, -51%)
#6: Tower Heist ($7.2 million, -44%)
#6: Tower Heist ($7.2 million, -44%)
#7: J. Edgar ($6 million, -47%)
#8: A Very Harold & Kumar Christmas ($3.1 million, -47%)
#9: In Time ($2.3 million, -46%)
#10: Footloose (2011) ($1.6 million, -46%)
