First up is greek war epic Immortals, which releases in 3-D and according to one of my resources, its' one of the months' most anticipated films. One might expect this one to do huge business for November (in the $30-$40 million range similar to District 9 and Battle: Los Angeles), but its' being held down for a number of reasons. One, the war genre has been largely ignored lately as Conan The Barbarian flopped earlier this year with just around $20 million for its' entire run. Two, distributor Relativity Media (internationally by Universal Pictures) has seen flops in three out of its' first four movies. There is also no starpower and the extra charge for 3-D has been ignored a lot this year. However, awareness has been high due to its' pretty impressive marketing campaign, though it hasn't been screened for critics yet. Debuting in around 4,400 screens at 3,000+ theaters, look for Immortals to start off with around $25 million this weekend, then expect it to be front-loaded, with a finish of around $60 million.
Also debuting in theaters is Adam Sandler's next comedy Jack & Jill. Obviously Sandler, who plays both the guy and the twin sister is a bankable star, though he hasn't seen his best in the last five years (with the exception of last year's ensemble comedy Grown Ups). Critics have been panning it so far, but it does carry a PG rating, so it will be a choice for the family audience, especially when Veteran's Day is a school holiday and will likely propel the weekend gross. However, this particular flick may struggle in the weeks ahead as there is a tidal wave of family movies arriving beginning next weekend, so its' time in theaters may be short dependent on how word-of-mouth is. Sandler's last and only other effort in the family movie industry, the Disney film Bedtime Stories, was a huge hit with over $100 million domestically, though that was a Christmas Day release and had virtually no competition in the weeks ahead, so that number may be a huge stretch for this. Debuting in around 4,000 screens at 3,000+ theaters, these advantages enough should make Jack & Jill have a chance at topping the box office, with also around $25 million for its' debut. A final domestic tally close to $80 million though looks well within range.
The last film opening in wide release is the biographical political drama J. Edgar, which debuted in seven screens today before expanding to wide release on Friday. Directed by famed director Clint Eastwood and starring one of the biggest actors of the past decade Leonardo DiCaprio, the R-rated flick has recieved mixed critical reception and relatively modest awareness. Promotion has been in full swing for the past couple weeks, and DiCaprio's last film, Inception, was 2010's biggest original blockbuster at nearly $850 million worldwide. I don't expect anywhere near that films' $62 million opening, though the political aspect reminds some of us of The Ides of March, which earned $10.5 million on its' debut six weeks ago and is on its' way to a finish just north of $40 million. Those numbers look like a reasonable expectation for this flick. Debuting in 1,900+ theaters, J. Edgar should earn $11 million for its' debut, and could find its' way to around $40 million when its' all said and done.
Puss in Boots did something extremely rare last weekend by nearly duplicating its' business from its' opening. Don't expect it to hold nearly as well this time, but continual positive word-of-mouth should keep it in the race for the top spot. A 30% drop to roughly $24 million would give the animated comedy $107 million in 17 days. Tower Heist will look to save some face, though the presence of Jack & Jill shouldn't affect it much, a 40% drop to $14.5 million would give it $45 million in 10 days. A Very Harold & Kumar 3-D Christmas should hold better than its' predecessor because of the Christmas theme, so a 45% drop might be in store to roughly $7.5 million, and would give it $25 million in 10 days. In Time has been defying expectations, and should continue holding well with a 40% ease to $4.5 million, for a $31 million pick-up in 17 days. The only other notable holdover, Paranormal Activity 3, will cross the $100 million barrier this weekend, and another 50% drop to around $4 million would give it $103 million in 24 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Immortals ($24.8 million)
#2: Jack & Jill ($24.6 million)
#3: Puss in Boots ($23.8 million, -29%)
#4: Tower Heist ($14.5 million, -40%)
#5: J. Edgar ($11.1 million)
#6: A Very Harold & Kumar 3-D Christmas ($7.4 million, -46%)
#7: In Time ($4.4 million, -41%)
#8: Paranormal Activity 3 ($3.8 million, -53%)
#9: Footloose (2011) ($2.9 million, -37%)
#10: Real Steel ($2 million, -41%)
