Out of all the new releases, The Muppets looks like the safest bet. When it comes to Thanksgiving, Disney comes out on top, holding seven of the Top 10 highest-grossing Thanksgiving openings of all-time. Going back to 1995's Toy Story and 1999's Toy Story 2, the trend would continue with 2000's 102 Dalmations, 2007's Enchanted, 2008's Bolt, 2009's Old Dogs, and last year's Tangled. This year, Disney is hoping to reboot the Muppet characters for a whole new generation. Jim Henson's beloved characters have a loyal fanbase, and have been in the public eye for the last five decades. Add in the starpower of Jason Segel and Amy Adams, the impressive promotional campaign, and the universal acclaim recieved from critics so far, this could be a huge surprise. The only things holding it back is five other films that will steal some of its' audience. Another thing is that the characters haven't been in theaters in 12 years, when Muppets in Space bombed with just nearly $20 million stateside, so a long lapse of time may not help it much either. Debuting in around 4,200 screens at 3,300+ theaters, look for The Muppets to score $26 million for the traditional 3-day weekend, and around $33 million for the five-day extended holiday weekend. The film should then continue playing through the remainder of the holidays and close at around $105 million, which is the average range for a Disney holiday release.
Also releasing into theaters for audiences looking to get an early start on the Christmas season is Arthur Christmas. The 3-D animated film comes from Sony Pictures Animation, who has had a fantastic year with The Smurfs grossing $500 million worldwide, and is moving up to two films a year because of its' new partnership with U.K.'s Aardman Studios, who produced the film and is most famous for working with DreamWorks Animation on Flushed Away, Chicken Run and Wallace and Gromit. The bad news for this film is that animation has for the most part struggled this year, with all of this year's films failing to reach the $200 million mark that five of the seven animated flicks of 2010 reached. The good news is that it has 3-D to boost its' gross and Christmas-themed movies, particularly ones having Santa Claus involved, are easy sells and have great sustainability throughout the holiday season. Reviews have been overwhelmingly positive and promotion has been in full swing over the last month. Opening in around 5,500 screens at 3,300+ theaters, Arthur Christmas should take in $17 million for the three-day weekend, and around $24 million for the extended holiday weekend. Then it should continue to play well through the Christmas season and finish with around $70 million.
The final new release comes from acclaimed director Martin Scorcese, as he enters into the family genre for the first time with period drama/children's book adaption Hugo. This particular flick is also releasing in 3-D, which will likely boost its' gross, but with five competitors with a stronger pull for younger kids, and this one will likely be a weak link for Thanksgiving. However, the fantasy adventure has been showered with praise from critics. But, in another negative point, children's book adaptions, especially leaning towards fantasy, hardly ever fare well, with The Chronicles of Narnia and Diary of a Wimpy Kid series being the only notable exceptions. The only real comparison would be 2007's The Golden Compass, and in the face of competition earned just $70 million domestically, but that carried a PG-13 rating. Nonetheless though, even if its' opening is only close to a third of Compass or the last Narnia film ($24 million start), it should build on audience in the weeks ahead if word-of-mouth is just as positive. Opening in around 2,100 screens at around just 1,200 theaters, Hugo should take in roughly $10 million over the three-day weekend, and about $15 million for the 5-day extended frame. The film then looks to be on course for around $40 million domestically.
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I will likely hold onto the #1 spot for the extended frame, but its' drop will likely be very precipitous. In the past, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I and New Moon all dropped at least 60% for the three-day weekend, a number that this one will also do as well. That would put it at $55 million for the frame, and a 5-day weekend of $70 million will likely occur giving the first part of the final book $225 million in 10 days.
After its' disappointing debut last weekend, Happy Feet Two will look to gain serious ground, but it won't be easy with all the new competition out. Distributor Warner Bros. believes that the familiar brand will make females and moms that rushed out to Twilight last week will help it to nearly duplicate its' opening weekend, so its' still possible. But it certainly won't hold as well as the original Happy Feet, so a 30% drop to $15.5 million over the three-day weekend and a 5-day gross of $21 million would give it $47 million in 10 days.
The other two family holdovers, Jack & Jill and Puss in Boots are aiming for lower numbers. Jack should hold well, as it will have a chance to regain the older kids, tweens and teenagers that rushed to see Twilight last weekend, so a 25% ease to $9 million on the 3-day and $13 million on the 5-day would give it $58 million in 17 days. If there's one film that might flinch out of all the family movies, Puss will likely be that flick as it is the oldest on the market entering its' fifth weekend. A 30% ease to $7.5 million over the 3-day and around $10.5 million for the 5-day would give it $134 million in 30 days.
The Descendants is expanding to more theaters this weekend, so a much higher gross is expected. A five-day weekend of around $7 million might result.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: The Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($56 million 3-day, -59%) ($70 million 5-day)
#2: The Muppets ($26.2 million 3-day) ($33.1 million 5-day)
#3: Arthur Christmas ($16.9 million 3-day) ($23.8 million 5-day)
#4: Happy Feet Two ($15.6 million 3-day, -29%) ($21.2 million 5-day)
#5: Hugo ($9.8 million 3-day) ($15 million 5-day)
#6: Jack & Jill ($9.1 million 3-day, -29%) ($13.2 million 5-day)
#7: Puss in Boots ($7.4 million 3-day, -31%) ($10.6 million 5-day)
#8: Immortals ($6 million 3-day, -53%) ($9 million 5-day)
#9: The Descendants ($4.8 million 3-day, +400%) ($7 million 5-day)
#10: J. Edgar ($3.4 million 3-day, -44%) ($5 million 5-day)
Stay tuned for updates throughout the week and weekend....
