Is it Transformers? No, its' boxing robots on the right side of the ring as Real Steel hopes to replicate those films' success. Starring Hugh Jackman, the film has been in a strong promotion and marketing swing over the past month. Although it is the fall season and its' rare we find any real blockbusters, this could reverse the trend. Jackman is a huge, bankable star and buzz has been pretty high, not to mention the fact there hasn't been any true blue action films since Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which surprised everyone with nearly $175 million in ticket sales. Opening in around 4,100 screens at over 3,300 theaters (including IMAX theaters), expect nothing close to Transformers, but a better-than-expected $35 million.
On the left side of the ring, George Clooney hopes that his directed pic The Ides of March will get audience's vote. Starring Clooney and Ryan Gosling (who wasn't so hot with Drive), the film is opening close to election season, which could elevate the films' potential in terms of gross. Early critical reception has been quite positive and buzz has been overall modest. Clooney is another huge draw at the box office, and his fans will show up for this. Opening in over 2,000 theaters, Ides should see a decent $11 million result in its' poll.
After topping last week, Dolphin Tale still stands as the only new family flick on the block, so we should expect another spectacular hold. Look for a 30% ease to $10 million for a $50 million tally in 17 days. Moneyball should also continue holding well as the World Series is coming up, a 35% ease would give it roughly $8 million for also $50 million in 17 days. The Lion King 3-D will continue playing in theaters, even though Disney released its' Blu-ray yesterday (I bought it today). Now the studio is hoping that it will do fine even with that pressure, and odds are favoring a good hold because majority of families own DVD players and not the expensive Blu-ray players (the DVD version arrives November 15). Right now, a 45% drop could be in order, giving it $6 million and a 24-day total of $88 million.
Courageous and 50/50 will benefit from excellent audience reception, so look for 30% drops each for both, giving them $6.5 million and $6 million for their second weekends, bringing their totals to $18 million and $17 million in 10 days. Dream House, on the other hand, looks to cascade the usual amount for horror flicks, though no competition could lighten the blow, a 50% drop to $4 million would give it $15 million in 10 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Real Steal ($34.7 million)
#2: The Ides of March ($11 million)
#3: Dolphin Tale ($10.1 million, -29%)
#4: Moneyball ($7.9 million, -34%)
#5: Courageous ($6.7 million, -28%)
#6: The Lion King 3-D ($6 million, -44%)
#7: 50/50 ($5.8 million, -32%)
#8: Dream House ($4.1 million, -49%)
#9: Contagion ($2.8 million, -39%)
#10: What's Your Number? ($2.6 million, -52%)
