But based on buzz and critical endorsement, action flick Drive looks to have the best shot at taking the top spot from Contagion. With the exception of Fast Five, there really hasn't been much noise made about traditional action flicks since early in the year. However, FilmDistrict has had a heck of a starting year with Insidious and Soul Surfer doing solid business and even Don't Be Afraid of the Dark seeing a higher multiplier than the typical horror flick. Critics have given it very positive reviews, and buzz has been closer towards Insidious among other recent flicks. Opening in over 2,400 theaters, look for Drive to snag $13 million on its' opening weekend.
Also opening, Screen Gems looks to combine hillbilly and horror with remake Straw Dogs. The original 1971 film wasn't a huge success, and remakes haven't seen the best results this year. But SG has also seen a good reputation over the past couple years, and the film boasts a good starring cast, including James Marsden (Hop, Enchanted) and Kate Bosworth. The horror genre hasn't seen the best business lately, which will limit this flick's potential even more. Opening in over 2,400 theaters, look for the Straw Dogs remake to earn $11 million on its' debut weekend.
For family audiences, Disney is hoping that the 3-D re-release of their animated blockbuster The Lion King will fit the bill. The movie was originally released in 1994 and was at the time the biggest animated film of all time, with nearly $750 million in worldwide earnings (with today's adjusted ticket prices, it remains the most-attended animated film ever). Since then, other movies have passed it, but considering hand-drawn 2D animation has become mostly obsolete, its' still a remarkable number. However, this time around, people may think that adding 3-D may seem like a pointless idea, but critics have been praising the 3-D as breathtaking and adding much needed depth and reality to the film. The biggest problem the film has is that family audiences may not be interested in paying the extra price for tickets, especially when its' only for a two-week limited engagement and it re-releases on Blu-ray and DVD for the latest generation next month. However, Toy Story and Toy Story 2's 3-D double-feature earned a decent $12.1 million, though that was a double-feature and seemed worth the extra surcharge. Opening in over 2,200 3D theaters, look for The Lion King to return to theaters with roughly $10 million.
The final new release is Sarah Jessica Parker comedy I Don't Know How She Does It, which hopes to get a similar number to Bridesmaids from earlier this year. Supporting cast members Pierce Brosnan and Greg Kinnear will add a little more potential for this pic. Promotion has been up lately, but distributor The Weinstein Company hasn't seen much good come out of its' releases this year. With not much for the female audience in a while, expect them to come out in decent numbers, but it will have some of it's audience chipped away by holdover The Help. Opening in over 2,400 theaters, look for the flick to collect about $8.5 million for its' opening weekend.
After opening solidly last weekend, Contagion hasn't seen the best audience reception (B CinemaScore grade), so a 45% slide to around $12 million would still give it a good shot at claiming the top spot for a second weekend in a row. The Matt Damon thriller would have picked up about $40 million in 10 days. The Help will have new competition, but will continue its' remarkable run with a 35% dip to roughly $6 million, and $146 million in five weeks. Warrior opened as a loss, but gained great audience reception with an A CinemaScore grade. Look for a 45% slide to $3 million and a disappointing $11 million in 10 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Drive ($13.1 million)
#2: Contagion ($12.2 million, -44%)
#3: Straw Dogs ($11.3 million)
#4: The Lion King 3-D ($10 million)
#5: I Don't Know How She Does It ($8.6 million)
#6: The Help ($5.9 million, -35%)
#7: Warrior ($3.2 million, -44%)
#8: The Debt ($2.6 million, -46%)
#9: Colombiana ($2.2 million, -47%)
#10: Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($2 million, -49%)
