The film with the biggest potential is thriller Contagion. The flick has nice starpower, including Matt Damon, Lawrence Fishburne, Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Kate Winslet. Critics have been mixed towards it, though Damon is a huge bankable star, and was successful earlier this year with The Adjustment Bureau, which earned $21 million on its' debut weekend and finished with around $60 million. A similar number would be a reasonable target for this flick. Opening in around 3,600 screens at over 3,100 theaters, look for Contagion to take in a solid $23 million for its' debut.
Boxing drama Warrior also kicks its' way into theaters this weekend. Although its' starpower isn't the strongest, as Tom Hardy, Joel Edgerton, and Nick Nolte aren't the biggest box office draws, critics has been awarding the film very positive reviews and distributor Lionsgate has been making sure awareness is high through the films' extensive promotional campaign, including sneak peeks in theaters this past Sunday. One of the films' best comparisons is last years' The Fighter, which opened to $12.5 million last year, then saw amazing legs throughout the holiday season and Oscar season with nearly $95 million total. While I don't expect the final gross to go that high, I should expect a similar opening weekend. Punching its' way into around 1,700 theaters, look for Warrior to earn $13.5 million for its' debut.
The other new nationwide release is Adam Sandler-produced flick Bucky Larson: Born To Be A Star. The screwball adult film stars Nick Swardson and Christina Ricci, and hasn't seen much promotional or marketing push. The only major chance it had was a trailer on the MTV Movie Awards (according to various sources), and the only other comparison would be Zack and Miri, which earned an okay $7 million on its' opening and $25 million by the time it was done, but even that flick had better promotion. Debuting in 1,400+ theaters, look for Bucky Larson to earn roughly $4 million for its' debut frame.
It was mighty lucky to top the box office for three weeks straight, but The Help will still hold well as there really isn't much going against it. Look for a 30% ease to around $10 million for a total near $140 million in one month of release. After debuting solidly last week, The Debt might hold decently, but its' "B" CinemaScore grade might not guarantee the best hold. Look for a 40% drop to roughly $6 million and a total of $23 million in 12 days. Rise of the Planet of the Apes will be the only other holdover to continue to do solid business, with no further competition, a 40% ease to roughly $5 million would give the sci-fi sleeper $167 million in five weeks. Apollo 18 and Shark Night 3-D both look to cascade from negative audience response, 65% and 60% plunges to around $3 million apiece would give them lackluster totals of about $15 million apiece in 10 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Contagion ($23.2 million)
#2: Warrior ($13.6 million)
#3: The Help ($10.3 million, -30%)
#4: The Debt ($5.9 million, -38%)
#5: Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($4.9 million, 39%)
#6: Colombiana ($4.2 million, -45%)
#7: Bucky Larson: Born To Be A Star ($3.9 million)
#8: Shark Night 3-D ($3.3 million, -61%)
#9: Spy Kids: All The Time In The World ($3.2 million, -33%)
#10: Apollo 18 ($3 million, -68%)
